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Our area will likely begin getting some fringe effects from Tropical Storm Lee today. Please refer to the following link for details:
Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing September 3, 2011---Page 1
In this update:
Fringe effects from Tropical Storm Lee will begin today and last into Tuesday.
Key Points for this event:
The main impacts from Lee for our area will be:
o Heavy rain
o Dangerous rip currents, high surf, and hazardous boating conditions
o Isolated tornadoes
IR satellite image and Mean Sea Level Pressure at 5 AM CDT
The current weather picture and event summary:
Tropical Storm Lee was centered about 75 miles southwest of Morgan City Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. Lee was moving north at
5 MPH, and will likely reach the Louisiana coast later today or tonight. Lee was not a classic-looking tropical storm (as this IR satellite image shows), as nearly all of the showers and thunderstorms were in the eastern semicircle (as opposed to surrounding the center).
Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing September 3, 2011---Page 2
This relatively poor organization likely means that Lee will not intensify into a hurricane, making it more of a rain threat than a wind threat.
This is the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center for Tropical Storm Lee, issued at 5 AM EDT Saturday. Note that Lee is not expected to become a hurricane. Also note there were no watches or warnings in effect east of Destin, Florida.
Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing September 3, 2011---Page 3
As Lee moves slowly inland later today and Sunday, rain will gradually spread from southwest to northeast across our area. The rain will begin at the Florida Panhandle coast today, then spread farther inland tonight and Sunday, and last through Monday night or Tuesday before tapering off. The following image is the projected storm total rainfall from today through Monday:
Although these rainfall totals would not have a major impact (especially since they will be spread out over a period of 2 days), isolated rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 times these amounts can often occur when a tropical cyclone moves inland. Thus isolated amounts exceeding 10 inches are possible, and that could cause flooding if it occurs during a fairly short time frame.
Surf heights along the Florida Panhandle Beaches will be 5 to 7 feet today (with occasional higher sets possible), and may increase to 10 feet by Monday. This will create very dangerous conditions for swimmers through at least Tuesday. Some beach erosion is also possible. Tides of 1 to possibly 2 feet above normal tide levels are expected Sunday through Monday night along the Panhandle and Big Bend beaches. Typically, these tide levels do not have a major impact on our coast line.
Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing September 3, 2011---Page 4
There is a 2% chance (within 25 miles of a point) of a tornado along our Panhandle coast today and tonight, as brief tornadoes occasionally develop with landfalling tropical cyclones. This threat will likely spread a bit farther inland Sunday as the dry air currently in place gradually moistens. There could be a more significant tornado threat for much of our region Monday and Monday night as Lee makes his point of closest approach.
Summary:
The outer rain bands from Tropical Storm Lee will begin to spread across the region later today and Sunday. This rain could be heavy at times, especially in the Florida Panhandle.
High surf and frequent, strong rip currents will be extremely dangerous for swimmers, and the very high seas and strong winds will also be hazardous to boaters.
Isolated tornadoes are possible along the Florida Panhandle coast today & tonight. This threat may spread inland and increase Sunday and Monday.
Emergency Manager Severe Weather Briefing September 3, 2011---Page 5
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor this situation closely today. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*184.
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