Irene has strengthened into a hurricane overnight while passing along the north coast of Puerto Rico

Irene has strengthened into a hurricane overnight while passing along

the north coast of Puerto Rico. As of 7 am ET this morning, Irene had

maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Irene was moving to the west

northwest around 14 mph. On this motion, Irene is expected to move along

the north coast of Hispaniola over the next 36 hours.

 

After 36 hours, the forecast becomes increasingly complex. A trough of

low pressure across the Upper Mississippi River Valley is predicted to

swing through the Great Lakes weakening the large ridge of high pressure

currently located to the north of Irene. As the ridge weakens, Irene

will begin moving more northwestward and eventually turn more to the

north. Depending on how quickly this ridge weakens, will determine

whether Irene poses a threat to Florida or areas further up the

Southeast U.S. Coast.

 

One consequence of the current track is that Irene is now expected to

have much less land interaction with the mountainous terrain of

Hispaniola. As a result, Irene could strengthen into a strong hurricane

while moving near the Central and Western Bahamas.

 

Many of the computer models prefer an eventual track with Irene along or

just east of the Florida East Coast, placing our region on the weaker,

west side of the tropical system, thereby limiting the overall impact

for our eastern areas. However, a couple of other computer models still

indicate the possibility of Irene moving into the far Eastern Gulf of

Mexico. Given the uncertainty at longer ranges of the forecast, much of

the NWS Tallahassee Forecast Area remains inside the cone of uncertainty.

 

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee will continue to monitor the

progress of Irene closely today. Another update will likely be sent out

later today from our office to include the latest track information

provided by the National Hurricane Center and any potential impacts to

our region. As always, if you have any questions, please give our office

a call and ask to speak to one of our meteorologists... 850-942-8833.