Tropical Storm Lee continues to move across the Central Gulf Coast

Weather Briefing for Emergency Managers September 4, 2011---Page 1
In this update:
 Tropical Storm Lee continues to move across the Central Gulf Coast
 Inland Flooding Threat Increasing across part of the region

Overview:
activity across the region later this evening and throughout the day on Monday. Bands of heavy rain will result in rainfall totals approaching 4 to 6 inches over the next 24 hours, producing
Tropical Storm Lee is moving inland across Central Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi. Lee has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, and is expected to continue to slowly weaken. A very moist airmass will continue to move northward out of the Gulf of Mexico toward our region around the outer edges of Lee. This moisture will lead to widespread shower and thunderstorm

Weather Briefing for Emergency Managers September 4, 2011---Page 2
storm totals as high as 8 to 12 inches across parts of Southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far Southwestern Georgia. Lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches will be possible further east across South Central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend.
In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, the potential exists for isolated tornados in some of the strongest rain bands across our region through Monday.

The latest forecast track on Lee:
Because the primary threat associated with Lee is locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes it is important not to focus on the exact track shown above. In fact, the effects of Lee are greatest further away from the center of circulation.
Weather Briefing for Emergency Managers September 4, 2011---Page 3
Specific Impacts:
**Inland Flooding**
Additional rainfall accumulations through Tuesday Morning:
6” +
4 to 6”
2 to 4”
1 to 2”
Weather Briefing for Emergency Managers September 4, 2011---Page 4
**Coastal Flooding**
Tidal charts for Panama City Beach (left) and Apalachicola (right):
Persistent onshore flow across the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to result in rising water levels across the coastal areas. With the intensity of the onshore flow expected to peak on Monday afternoon through Monday Evening, water levels are expected to be highest around and just after that time. We currently expect the worst coastal inundation to occur early on Tuesday morning around the local time of high tide. For Destin and Panama City Beach, high tides on Tuesday morning are between 3 am and 5 am local time. From Apalachicola eastward to the Suwannee River Entrance, high tides are between 8am and 10 am local time.

The chart below references potential storm TIDE values relative to mean lower low water. Remember, that Storm Tide is the combination of the PREDICTED astronomical tide and the additive storm surge.
County
High Tide Tues Morn
Maximum Storm Surge
Maximum Storm Tide Walton 554 am CT 1.75 feet 2.75 feet
Bay
311 am CT
1.6 feet
3.5 feet Gulf 521 am CT 2 feet 4.1 feet
Franklin
951 am ET
2 feet
4.5 feet Wakulla/Jefferson 930 am ET 2.3 feet 5.2 feet
Taylor
850 am ET
2 feet
5.7 feet Dixie 854 am ET 2 feet 5.2 feet
With the coastal flood potential, there is also a very high risk of rip currents, high surf, and coastal erosion across the region through Tuesday.

Weather Briefing for Emergency Managers September 4, 2011---Page 5
**Tornadoes**

As with any tropical system, the potential for tornadoes is increased. With this particular system, the interaction of Lee with an approaching mid level disturbance is expected to increase the tornado potential. At this time, there is a slight risk for tornadoes, approximately near 5 percent. While this may seem like a very low value, for a rare event, like a tornado, it is actually pretty high. The tornado risk will be greatest across the entire region through Monday evening.
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Weather Briefing for Emergency Managers September 4, 2011---Page 6
Summary:
** Tropical Storm Lee is moving inland across Louisiana and Southern Mississippi
** The primary focus for this event is on locally heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and coastal flooding and erosion. \
** Storm total rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches will be possible in the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama with lesser values eastward toward Interstate 75.

** Isolated tornadoes will be possible through Monday Evening
** The National Weather Service in Tallahassee continues to experience land line communication issues. Please utilize alternative communication methods to reach us. Southern Link, Comlabs, and Email are still functional.