UPDATED: 10:15 am EDT, August 2, 2011 Emily's track has turned

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Emily remains a weak and fairly disorganized tropical storm this morning. Although there are some very cold cloud tops seen on IR satellite imagery, the inner core of the storm is not very well defined. Until and unless this changes for the better for Emily, it will not strengthen much. This won't matter too much for Hispaniola where a lot of rain is going to fall. Flash floods and mudslides are a near certainty as the storm drops several inches of rain on the region. Also consider the orographic lift of the mountains. They will act to squeeze out the moisture and enhance the tropical rains leading to excessive amounts in the end. Of course, Haiti is still dealing with the terrible earthquake from last year and will need to take measures to mitigate effects to life and property in this fragile nation. The faster Emily can move in and out, the better. So far, it looks as though it will be a quick passage with no stall or major slow down anticipated.

Of course the rugged terrain will also take a bite out of Emily as its circulation will become disrupted to some extent. How much so depends on how well organized it is in the first place. A weak, disorganized storm cannot get much more weak where as a stronger, well developed storm or hurricane would suffer more and have more energy to lose. We'll just have to wait and see how this plays out but Emily is not expected to be much of a storm once it passes over Hispaniola.

The track has changed which is always expected. Now it looks as though Florida will not have to deal with direct effects from Emily. There will be an increase in waves and rough surf once Emily crosses Hispaniola. In fact, if the forecast models verify and Emily turns away from the coast, missing completely, I assure you there will still be a dangerous surf issue to deal with all across the Southeast. It is too soon to know if Emily will ever make landfall along the U.S. mainland but it could be close. Let's first see if the storm survives its trip out of the Caribbean over the next couple of days. We will post updates this evening.